Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
